Drake Equation Calculator

How many intelligent alien civilizations are out there? Adjust the sliders and let the math decide.

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
1.5
How many new stars form in our galaxy each year
1
What fraction of stars have planetary systems
0.4
Average number of planets that could support life
0.3
Of habitable planets, how many actually develop life
0.2
Of planets with life, how many develop intelligence
0.1
Of intelligent species, how many develop detectable technology
10,000
How long a communicating civilization lasts
👽
Estimated Civilizations in Our Galaxy
3.6
With these values, there might be a handful of civilizations out there. But space is really, really big.

What Is the Drake Equation?

In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake proposed a simple equation to estimate the number of active, communicative civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. The equation multiplies seven factors, from the rate of star formation to the lifespan of technological civilizations. It was never meant to give a precise answer, but rather to organize scientific thinking about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

The Fermi Paradox

If the Drake Equation suggests even a few civilizations, then as physicist Enrico Fermi famously asked: "Where is everybody?" This is the Fermi Paradox. Possible explanations include the "Great Filter" (some step in development that almost no civilization survives), the vast distances between stars, civilizations choosing not to communicate, or simply that we have not been looking long enough.

What values did Drake originally use?
Drake's 1961 estimates were: R*=1, fp=0.2-0.5, ne=1-5, fl=1, fi=1, fc=0.1-0.2, L=1,000-100,000,000. His result was N=1,000 to 100,000,000 civilizations. Modern astronomers tend to be more conservative on some factors but more optimistic on others.
How many stars are in the Milky Way?
Current estimates put the number at 100-400 billion stars. NASA's Kepler mission found that most stars have at least one planet, and roughly 1 in 5 Sun-like stars has an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone. That means billions of potentially habitable worlds in our galaxy alone.